On September 25, 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis, the first part of its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Six years in the making, the 2,200 page report was developed by 209 lead authors, citing more than 9,000 scientific publications in their analysis of key physical and scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.
The report confirms that human influence is the dominant cause of observed warming. Scientists now state with more certainty than ever before, that it is extremely likely (95% probability) that human activities, particularly combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land use, are responsible for the 0.85ºC increase in average global temperatures that has occurred since 1880.
There has been a reduction in the rate of atmospheric temperature increases over the past fifteen years which the IPCC attributes to the absorption by the oceans of a large amount of heat, and sequestering a third of the greenhouse gas emissions. This is by no means good news, since warmer waters expands leading to rising sea levels, sea temperatures also significantly influence climate patterns and an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in ocean waters contributes to acidification with negative impact on aquatic ecosystems. The report concludes that “human influence has been detected in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.”
The report lays out four different potential scenarios for global temperature rise over the course of the century, ranging from 0.3 ºC to 4.8ºC. In the immediate decades, all four scenarios follow a similar trajectory, showing a low sensitivity to curbing emissions in the short-term. But if current trends continue, the effects of cumulative emissions will be difficult to mitigate due to the long half-life of greenhouse gases and their continued impact on the climate long after emissions subside.
The AR5 is the first IPCC report to define a “carbon budget” – an estimate of the maximum amount of human caused emissions that can be released in the atmosphere before we experience warming greater than 2ºC – the indicative threshold beyond which extensive global environmental and socio-economic damage is expected. That carbon budget is 1,000 trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), of which approximately half has already been emitted. Based on carbon-intensive trajectories, this means that the world has just 30 years until it has used up its carbon budget. If we exceed this budget, the chance of staying within 2ºC of warming looks far less promising.
What does this mean for business? In short, climate change brings with it greater risks and investment challenges:
• More frequent extreme weather events: Higher temperatures and more extreme weather are among the most apparent business risks. At the World Economic Forum in 2013, financial experts named climate change as one of the top three business risks. From raging wildfires to severe flooding, extreme weather events can imperil operations throughout a company’s supply chain. Rising sea levels will also threaten shorelines. According to the IPCC, sea levels have likely risen nearly twice as fast as previously reported. More than 1 billion people worldwide, along with many financial centers, are located in low-lying coastal communities. According to the OECD, average flood losses in major cities around the world could exceed $52 billion per year by 2050, and possibly go as high as $1 trillion without additional protection. At the other end of the spectrum, some regions will be faced with greater water scarcity rather than flooding. In the Carbon Disclosure Project’s 2012 Global Water Report, 53% of respondent companies reported that they have experienced water-related detrimental impacts in the past 5 years (up from 38% in 2011), with costs as high as $200 million for some companies.
• Risks to energy infrastructure: Extreme weather also poses a threat to energy and electricity infrastructure by potentially disrupting production, delivery, and storage of energy. Many power sources depend on water and decreased water availability due to changing precipitation trends may threaten operations.
• Investment risks: Climate-related economic disruption also compounds risks to global investments. A 2011 Mercer study warned that climate change could increase investment-portfolio risk by 10 percent over the next two decades. The IPCC’s carbon budget may have implications for fossil fuel companies, which are traditionally among the higher grossing investments. Since their value is based on proven reserves, there is a risk of devaluation if a significant portion of the reserves are left untapped in order to keep within the carbon budget.
• Insurance risks: Extreme weather events are already having an impact on the insurance industry. As damage from extreme weather events increases, insurers are faced with either hiking rates or refusing to provide coverage in disaster-prone areas. Ultimately, increased costs will be passed onto businesses and consumers.
While climate change presents clear risks to business, smart responses can deliver economic benefits as well. In a 2010 report by the UN Global Compact, more than 86 percent of businesses named responding to climate change as an opportunity. This is reflected in the actions of many multinational corporations, which are already taking steps to reduce risks and lower their greenhouse gas emissions. Whether it is driving emission reductions throughout the supply chain, investing in renewable energy or phasing out the use of carbon intensive materials, companies are choosing to act.
Industry comments in response to the IPCC report highlight the urgent need for action for more, see ‘Experts React’. Nick Robins, head of the Climate Partnership at HSBC, commented that: “The IPCC report provides firmer foundations for policy action. For the world’s capital markets, climate change is an issue of strategic risk management … Our research shows that India, China, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil are the G-20 nations that are most vulnerable to climate risks. We expect the succession of IPCC reports into 2014 to provide a renewed impetus to policy and business action through to the finalization of negotiations in December 2015.” Head of Swiss Re’s sustainability program in the Americas, Mark Way, also said: “When a body like the IPCC concludes that with 95% certainty mankind is causing climate change we would be foolish not to listen. And yet we are still not listening closely enough. The transition to a low carbon economy and a more climate-resilient society cannot be thought of as options, they are necessities.” Mindy Lubber, president of Ceres (a US-based organisation which presses for greater sustainability and environmental awareness in the business sector) summed it up nicely: “The IPCC report’s conclusion is unequivocal – climate change is happening and it’s disrupting all aspects of the global economy, including supply chains, commodity markets and the entire insurance industry. Business momentum is growing to innovate new strategies and products to manage climate risks and opportunities. But scaling these efforts to levels that will slow warming trends will require stronger carbon-reducing policies globally.”
The IPCC will release three more parts to the AR5 report in 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Mitigation of Climate Change; and a Synthesis Report. For more information on the current report, see IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.