Climate Policy Innovation: California Considers a New Approach Post-2020 – The End of the Offsets System?

With the introduction of Senate Bill SB 775 (California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: Market-based Compliance Mechanisms) into the California Senate on May 2, 2017, California is innovating on climate policy once again. Although it has a long journey to complete before becoming law, SB 775 is significant because it would completely revamp California’s cap and trade system once the current program ends in 2020.  Under SB 775, the key features of California’s proposed new system are as follows:

  • The cap and trade system would be completely overhauled with a new program commencing on January 1, 2021; no allowances and offsets from the current system would be transferred over.
  • All allowances under the proposed new program would be auctioned, meaning that no allowances will be allocated for free. Further, no offsets will be permitted for use as a compliance mechanism.
  • A price collar would be established in 2021, with the price floor starting at US $20 and a price ceiling of US $30 (the initial auction price would be set at US $30 per allowance). The price floor would rise at $5 per year plus inflation; while the price ceiling would rise at US $10 per year plus inflation. The proposed program is designed to operate in perpetuity, so in the absence of amendments to the program, the price ceiling could exceed US $300 by 2050.
  • A broad revenue structure would be established to allocate revenue into three programs: (1) California Climate Dividend Program, which will rebate revenue on a per-capita basis; (2) public infrastructure investments and investments in disadvantaged communities; and (3) climate and clean energy research and development.
  • The new cap-and-trade program will not link to any other jurisdiction until that jurisdiction has a minimum carbon price that is equal to or greater than California’s. Also, the Governor must be satisfied that the linkage will not adversely impact California dividends.
  • The proposed cap-and-trade program would impose a border adjustment tax on imports based on their carbon intensity, which would be administered by a newly created Economic Competitiveness Assurance Program. The border adjustment tax would seek to ensure that in-state industry is not unduly impacted by California’s carbon pricing regime. In the event that a border adjustment tax is reduced or eliminated following a legal decision, SB 775 provides a safety net for California businesses in the event the border adjustment tax is reduced or eliminated following a legal challenge. In particular, free allowances, would be made available to eligible companies for the purpose of maintaining economic parity between producers of carbon intensive goods that are subject to the cap and trade system and those who produce or sell similar products that are not.

The introduction of SB 775 comes on the heels of Bill SB 584, which was introduced in February 2017 and calls for 100% of the state’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2045. Bill SB 32, which was passed in 2016, establishes an ambitious emissions reduction target for 2030 – i.e. beyond the current emissions reduction target of returning to 1990 emission levels by 2020, SB 32 mandates a reduction of an additional 40% in emissions by 2030.

The passage of SB 775 in its current form will no doubt have implications for the existing cap and trade programs in Québec and Ontario. Since 2014, California’s cap and trade program has been linked to Québec’s emissions trading system and Ontario is expected to link to both California and Québec’s cap-and-trade programs in 2018. Since any jurisdiction looking to link with California’s program from post-2020 would first need to match the state’s level of carbon pricing, Québec and Ontario may have limited incentive to link to California from 2021, since California’s minimum carbon price in 2021 will already be close to or exceed the carbon pricing requirements of the Canadian federal government (starting in 2018, provinces and territories are expected to implement a carbon price of CAD $10, which will increase by $10 per year until it reaches CAD $50 in 2022). SB 775 is now undergoing review by the Committee on Environmental Quality, after which it will be sent to the state Senate and then on to the state Assembly, before it is sent back fro reconciliation. California Governor Jerry Brown has asked for reauthorization of the cap and trade program by July 2017.

Canadian Federal Government Announces Minimum Carbon Price for Provinces to Meet

On October 3, 2016, Prime Minister Trudeau announced that the federal government will set a minimum price on carbon starting at $10 per tonne in 2018, and increasing by $10 per year for the next four years until it reaches $50 per tonne by 2022. Each province will be required to implement carbon pricing in its jurisdiction within two years – whether in the form of a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system – which must meet the federal minimum price. Otherwise, the federal government will impose a tax that makes up the difference and return the revenue to the province. In addition, provincial emission reduction goals for reducing emissions must be at least as stringent as federal targets. Currently, Canada’s four biggest provinces – Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia – have carbon pricing plans in place.

The Prime Minister said he will convene a first ministers’ meeting on December 8 with the aim of concluding a pan-Canadian climate plan, which would include carbon pricing and other measures.

 

Manitoba Releases Updated Climate Change Strategy and Confirms Implementation of Cap & Trade

On December 3, 2015, Manitoba released its Climate Change and Green Economy Action Plan (the Plan), which updates the province’s 2008 Climate Action Plan, Beyond Kyoto. The Plan sets out Manitoba’s medium and long-term GHG reduction targets:

  • By 2030, Manitoba will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by one-third over 2005 levels.
  • By 2050, Manitoba will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by one-half over 2005 levels.
  • By 2080, Manitoba will be carbon neutral.

The Plan also outlines projects that will be undertaken through Manitoba’s new five-year $5 million Climate Change Action Fund. Funds will be invested across sectors to continue driving innovation in the province’s transportation and agriculture sectors, assess local climate risks and develop solutions, expand climate change work on the ground by partnering with communities, and expand innovative energy projects in First Nation communities. Manitoba will also look at how carbon pricing can be used as a tool to drive innovation and boost economic growth while reducing GHG emissions. Manitoba, a member of the Western Climate Initiative, reiterated its commitment to implement a cap and trade program for 20 large emitters in the province and will look at other innovative measures, such as a made-in-Manitoba Carbon Stewardship model for sectors not covered by cap and trade. To that end, Manitoba will carry out public consultations on carbon pricing to explore a range of opportunities. Under the Plan, the Manitoba government will also reduce emissions from government operations through increased energy efficiency, a greener vehicle fleet and equipment, greener office spaces, and waste reduction. Manitoba will provide a complete inventory of its own GHG emissions and develop a comprehensive policy framework to enable it to become a carbon neutral government. The Plan also addresses key sectors such as buildings, transportation and agriculture. Manitoba has demonstrated its climate leadership with the development of new zero-emission battery electric transit buses and transformative research into new crops and natural bio-products.

Ontario’s cap-and-trade program design options released for further consultation

In the lead-up to Paris climate talks (COP 21), the Ontario government has released a consultation paper that sets out the early details of how Ontario’s proposed cap-and-trade program will work. The proposed program details are not final and are subject to further consultation before a final cap-and-trade regulation is expected to be issued in spring 2016.

Ontario’s proposed cap-and-trade system would commence on January 1, 2017 and the cap on greenhouse gas emissions would decline by 3.7% in each of the following three years, falling to 15% below 1990 levels by 2020. It is anticipated that the cap-and-trade program will have a broad reach and most sectors of the economy will fall under the cap including heavy industry, transportation fuel (including gasoline and natural gas), and electricity generation.

Since the transportation sector accounts for a significant portion of the province’s overall emissions, a carbon price on transportation fuels will seek to incentivize drivers to choose alternative means of transportation. The Canadian Fuels Association has estimated that if Ontario’s carbon allowances trade at the same minimum price as those under Quebec’s cap-and-trade system, the cost of gasoline will initially increase by at least 3.6 cents per litre, rising to 4.6 cents by 2020.

In order to provide some relief to certain trade-exposed sectors, the Ontario government has proposed allocating free allowances to certain industries, in some cases up to 100% for the first four years of the program. Under the cap-and-trade program, these industries will still be required to reduce emissions in order to comply with their obligations under the cap, but their compliance costs would be lower.

Consultations with industry and other stakeholders is ongoing, and as noted above, it is anticipated that the details of the cap-and-trade program will be finalized in spring 2016. As we reported earlier, Ontario has proposed changes to the provincial Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Regulation, which will help to facilitate the linking of Ontario’s cap-and-trade program with the Quebec and California programs.

Ontario Releases Regulatory Proposal to Amend GHG Reporting Regulation

In support of the development and future implementation of its cap-and-trade system, Ontario’s Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MOECC) is proposing amendments to the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Regulation (O. Reg. 452/09) (the GHG Reporting Regulation). Under the current GHG Reporting Regulation, regulated facilities emitting 25,000 tonnes or more of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per year are required to report and verify their emissions. Once implemented, the proposed amendments will significantly increase the amount of emissions reported and the number of facilities reporting under the GHG Reporting Regulation.
The proposed amendments include the following:
• lowering the reporting threshold to 10,000 tonnes CO2e from the current threshold of 25,000 tonnes per year, while maintaining the requirement to have emissions greater than 25,000 tonnes per year third party verified;
• dividing the emission sources into those that are reporting only and those that require third party verification;
• adding petroleum product suppliers and natural gas distributors to the GHG Reporting Regulation starting in 2016; and
• adding other sources to the reporting regulation including:
– equipment used for natural gas transmission, distribution and storage,
– electricity imports,
– electricity transmission and distribution,
– magnesium production, and
– mobile equipment at facilities.
Similar to California, there will be no emissions thresholds for electricity importers, the purpose of which is to prevent them from sub-dividing into smaller entities to avoid compliance obligations.
The reporting threshold for liquid petroleum fuel distributors and suppliers will be set at 200 litres of fuel to ensure consistency with Québec requirements. The verification threshold will remain at 25,000 tonnes of CO2e, but any liquid fuel distributor and suppliers that exceed the 200 litre threshold will be required to verify their emissions reports. All electricity importers will be required to verify their emissions reports.
The amended GHG Reporting Regulation will also categorize certain emission sources as being subject to reporting requirements only, meaning that these emission will need to be reported, but would not be subject to verification or potential compliance requirements under the cap-and-trade program. These proposed categories include:
• fugitive geothermal units and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) emissions from cooling units at electricity generators;
• coal storage emissions;
• biomass combustion emissions; and
• on-site emissions from mobile equipment.
The proposed amendments have been posted for a 45 day public review and the comment period will end on October 29, 2015. Comments may be submitted to the MOECC’s designated contact person or online.

Ontario Resurrects Cap-and-Trade

Following recent public consultations on its Climate Change Discussion Paper, Ontario is expected to bring in a cap-and-trade system which reports say could raise between $1 billion to $2 billion per year, depending on the price of carbon permits. Ontario Environment Minister Glen Murray is expected to present the plan to cabinet for approval by mid-April 2015. Under a cap-and-trade system, a limit is placed on total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with the price of carbon being determined by the market. Under the system envisioned by Ontario, the cap will be divided into permits, some of which will be given away (to maintain competitiveness, particularly where a particular industry is trade sensitive) while the remaining permits will be auctioned off. Regulated emitters will be required to obtain a sufficient number of permits to cover their emissions and where emitters are able to reduce emissions, they will be able to sell permits to those emitters who need more. The auction proceeds will likely be directed into GHG emission reduction initiatives such as energy conservation retrofitting.

Once implemented, Ontario’s system could be linked with Quebec and California’s current cap-and-trade program, which would create a carbon market of 61 million people that covers more than 60% of Canada’s population. Ontario’s cap-and-trade plan has been waiting in the wings for a while. The province agreed to price carbon when it joined the Western Climate Initiative with Quebec, B.C. and California in 2008, and subsequently the Ontario government passed enabling legislation for a cap-and-trade system. However, cap-and-trade soon took a back seat to the recession and political uncertainty meant that there was little appetite for moving forward with climate change plans. With Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne taking a climate leadership role, there is new impetus for bold action on GHG reduction initiatives at the provincial level.

Washington State introduces Comprehensive Climate Change Initiatives

In December 2014, Washington State Governor Jay Inslee introduced an ambitious climate change policy agenda for 2015, including the establishment of an all-encompassing carbon pricing program. This policy follows the signing of Executive Order 14-04 (Washington Carbon Reduction and Clean Energy Action) by Governor Inslee on April 29, 2014, which set out a plan for state climate action.
If passed by state lawmakers, the program would raise an estimated $1 billion a year through a new levy on greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, the program would cap statewide pollution rates at levels that decline over time, with polluters allowed to trade state-sold pollution allowances among themselves. It would aim to address emissions covered other similar programs operating in the US, while avoiding pitfalls of other programs, such as giveaways for certain polluters. The technical aspects of Washington’s proposed program are considered best practices and as such, they have been lauded by outside observers such as the Environmental Defense Fund.
The program has been designed to help Washington get on track toward meeting its legislated goal of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, with a further 50% reduction by 2050. A November 2014 report by the Carbon Emissions Reduction Taskforce (which was established by Governor Inslee in April 2014 to provide recommendations on the design and implementation of a carbon emissions limits and market mechanisms program for Washington) concluded that Washington is not on target to comply with the 2008 law regarding required reductions in greenhouse gas pollution. It found that the requirement of reducing yearly pollution levels back to 1990 levels in 2020 would “likely” be met if a new cap and trade policy is implemented. Further steps would be needed to meet more ambitious reductions required by 2035 and 2050.
The proposed program would cover an estimated 85% of greenhouse gas emissions produced by Washington and it is anticipated that approximately 130 companies would be required to pay a levy, generating approximately $1 billion a year in revenue. Revenue generated under the cap-and-trade proposal would help to cover shortfalls in transportation and education spending, reduce taxes and fund household energy efficiency improvements for poorer residents, as well as help meeting the general costs of running the state.
Below is an overview of the legislative proposals aimed at reducing Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions:
• Carbon Pollution Accountability Act: The proposed Carbon Pollution Accountability Act (SB 5283 / HB 1314) would create a new market-based program that limits carbon emissions and requires regulated entities to pay for their emissions. The limit will decrease gradually over time, allowing emitters time to transition to cleaner technology and more efficient operations. The program will generate about $1 billion annually which will be used for transportation, education and disadvantaged communities. The draft Carbon Pollution Accountability Act can be found here.
• Clean Transportation: The Department of Transportation has three strategies to decrease transportation emissions: cleaner cars, cleaner fuels and moving people and goods more efficiently.
Electric Vehicles (EVs): Legislation will extend tax incentives for EVs, create an EV infrastructure bank, and require urban cities and counties to adopt EV incentive programs. Draft legislation can be found below:
o Alternative Fuel Vehicle Sales Tax Exemption (SB 5445 / HB 1925): This bill extend a sales tax exemption on the first $60,000 on the purchase of alternative fuel vehicles.
o Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Carbon Pollution Accountability ActBank (SB 5444 / HB 1572): An EV bank would give financial assistance to install publicly accessible high-speed charging stations.
o Electric Vehicle Readiness in Buildings (SB 5446 / HB 1929): This bill would require urban cities and counties to adopt high speed EV charging station incentive programs.
• Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs): The Department of Ecology has requested legislation to allow Washington to adopt the Zero Emission Vehicle program.
• Clean Fuel Standard: The Department of Ecology is preparing a draft rule that outlines a clean fuel standard that would help the state to transition to cleaner fuels over time.
• Sustainable Transportation Planning: To reduce carbon pollution that comes from cars, trucks and other transportation-related sources, the Department of Transportation has developed a five-part action plan.

Public hearings on the proposed Carbon Pollution Accountability Act are continuing and have attracted great interest. Stay tuned for more details.

California Holds Successful First Auction of Carbon Allowances

 
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) held its first auction on November 14, 2012 for the purchase and sale of carbon allowances for its planned cap-and-trade regime. Mary Nichols, chairman of CARB, declared the auction a success:

“The auction was a success and an important milestone for California as a leader in the global clean tech market. By putting a price on carbon, we can break our unhealthy dependence on fossil fuels and move at full speed toward a clean energy future.  That means new jobs, cleaner water and air – and a working model for other states, and the nation, to use as we gear up to fight climate change and make our economy more competitive and resilient.”

The auction results were released to the public on November 19th (available online) .  A tonne of carbon for the 2013 vintage year sold for $10.09, which is slightly above the $10.00 price floor set by CARB. The highest bid was a whopping $91.13.  Also, there was three times the number of bidders at the auction than actual buyers, indicating a healthy and competitive market. Furthermore, 97% of allowances were purchased by regulated entities indicating that prices were not influenced by speculative buyers. Instead, it seems to indicate that regulated entities are looking to retire allowances for compliance purposes.  Perhaps most importantly, the auction sold out with all 23,126,110 2013 vintage year allowances being purchased, raising approximately US$233 million. This auction kicks off the largest carbon market in North America and the second largest in the world, behind the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme.

California’s partners in the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) – including British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, and Québec – are no doubt paying close attention.  Apart from Québec, which will launch its emissions trading system on January 1, 2013 with California, the success of California’s cap-and-trade program may spur the other WCI partners into action to implement a similar scheme.

 


California to hold First Auction of GHG Emission Allowances on November 14, 2012

 
Bill AB 32 requires California to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The cap and trade regulation (“Regulation”) is a key element of California’s climate plan. The Regulation is designed to provide regulated entities with the flexibility to seek out and implement the lowest cost options to reduce emissions.  California’s cap and trade program will be second in size only to the European Union’s Emissions Trading System based on the amount of emissions covered. In addition to driving emission cuts in the ninth largest economy in the world, California’s program will provide critical experience in how an economy-wide cap and- trade system can function in the United States.

It is anticipated that California’s emissions trading system will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from regulated entities by more than 16% between 2013 and 2020. Starting on January 1, 2013, the Regulation will apply to large electric power plants and large industrial plants. In 2015, it will extend to fuel distributors (including distributors of heating and transportation fuels). At that stage, the program will encompass around 360 businesses throughout California and nearly 85% of the state’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

Under a cap and trade system, companies must hold enough emission allowances to cover their emissions, and are free to buy and sell allowances on the open market.  As part of the cap and trade program, the California Air Resources Board (ARB) will hold allowance auctions to allow market participants to acquire allowances directly from ARB.  ARB will conduct the first auction on November 14, 2012 from 10am to 1pm PST.  ARB will also conduct the first quarterly reserve sale on March 8, 2013. Auction participants will have to apply to participate in an auction, or submit a bid for reserve sales, and meet financial regulatory requirements in order to participate in an auction or reserve sale.

The November 14th auction will mark the beginning of the first greenhouse gas cap and trade program in the United States since the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a cap and trade program for power plants in nine northeastern US states, held its first auction in 2008.

California covered entities, opt-in covered entities, and voluntarily associated entities are eligible to participate in the November 2012 GHG allowance auction. Approved offset registries, verification bodies, and offset verifiers are not eligible to participate in auctions as they are not allowed to hold compliance instruments under the Regulation. Prior to participating in an auction, the Primary Account Representative (PAR) and Alternate Account Representative (AAR) that will be authorized to bid on behalf of entities eligible to participate in the auction must be approved users in the Compliance Instrument Tracking System Service (CITSS) and the entity must have an entity account in the CITSS.

The detailed auction requirements and instructions are available online
 

EU and Australia Agree to Link Carbon Trading Schemes

 

On August 28, 2012, the European Union (EU) and Australia announced their agreement to fully link their respective cap-and-trade schemes by 2018.  In addition, Australia announced that it will drop its planned A$15 per tonne carbon credit floor price and it will limit the use of Kyoto Protocol eligible international units under the Australian scheme. Furthermore, Australia will set its price ceiling with reference to the expected 2015-16 price of European allowances.  The combined effect is that cheaper EU carbon credits will be available for Australian emitters.

Under the arrangement, the European Commission will seek a mandate to negotiate a treaty on behalf of the EU by mid-2015 for the full linking of the emission trading systems from July 2018; the Australian Government has an existing mandate to negotiate such a treaty. As an interim arrangement, a partial link will be established to allow Australian businesses to source 50% of their emission allowances from the EU from July 2015. A similar allowance will be available for European emitters once the full link comes into effect no later than July 2018.

This is a welcome development for the EU trading scheme. Oversupply has driven the cost of carbon credits to record lows; currently, EU carbon trades at around US$10 per tonne. The opening of the market to Australian companies should help to alleviate this oversupply and with a carbon tax of A$23 per tonne, Australian emitters are welcoming the integration which will offer them a cheaper alternative.  However, the Australian government continues to project that carbon prices will reach A$29 per tonne by 2015 and 2016.