At COP 22 in Marrakech, Morocco, federal Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Catherine McKenna, announced Canada’s Mid-Century Long-Term Low-Greenhouse Gas Development Strategy (the Strategy). As one of the first countries to release a long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy focused on 2050, the Strategy describes various pathways for innovative and creative solutions consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding the global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C, while pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. In particular, the Strategy considers an emissions abatement pathway consistent with net emissions falling by 80% in 2050 from 2005 levels.
The federal government acknowledges that in order to achieve emission reductions in line with this goal will require substantial effort on the part of all Canadians, with a fundamental restructuring of multiple sectors of the economy. Cost-effective abatement opportunities will need to be realized from virtually every greenhouse gas emissions source and activity. In the energy sector, this will include enhanced energy efficiency and conservation, finding cleaner ways to produce and store electricity, and switching towards non-emitting electricity or other low-GHG alternatives.
The Strategy notes that the risks of inaction are threefold:
- Ongoing emissions of anthropogenic GHG will cause atmospheric concentrations to continue to rise, leading to higher global average temperatures and a cascade of related impacts, including increases in severe weather, and rising sea level.
- Failure to act now means that costs will likely rise in the future as the required pace of decarbonisation increases. This raises the probability of misallocation of investment and infrastructure, as well as stranded assets.
- As the world moves to address climate change, Canada should not be left behind in the emerging global markets for clean energy and related goods and services.
The Strategy identifies the following key messages:
- Most Canadians recognise the need to mitigate climate change and limit the increase in the global average temperature, but the magnitude of the challenge is less well understood, with a requirement for very deep emissions cuts from every sector by mid-century.
- Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to avoid the increasing threat presented by climate change. Benefits of action to reduce climate risk will outweigh costs and the international community is moving towards low-greenhouse gas economies. A particular focus on short-lived climate pollutants is also required if we are to stay below the 1.5°C – 2°C temperature goal.
- Canada has worked closely with the United States and Mexico in the development of this report. Our continental partners have also described ambitious mitigation action by 2050 in their respective strategies.
- Encouraging international efforts, including reducing emissions in other countries will be key to the global response.
- Working collaboratively with Indigenous peoples by supporting their ongoing implementation of climate change initiatives will be key. Consultations with Indigenous communities must respect the constitutional, legal, and international obligations that Canada has for its Indigenous peoples.
- The Strategy will help inform the pan-Canadian framework for clean growth and climate change.
In addition, the Strategy identifies a number of building blocks that could provide the foundation for Canada’s long-term climate change mitigation strategy:
- Cities are home to 70% of the world’s energy related carbon dioxide emissions. Canadian cities host 80% of the national population, compared to 62% sixty years ago. With a continuing trend in urbanization for the upcoming decades, cities across Canada cannot afford to wait to increase climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.
- Canada’s forests and lands will continue to play an important role in sequestering substantial amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This sequestration can be augmented through policies and measures that better manage our forests and forest products. Without consideration of the global land sector, the 1.5 to 2°C temperature goal will be very hard to achieve.
- Energy efficiency and demand side management are key to achieving deep GHG reductions. Efficiency gains are also key enablers of electrification technologies and consumer savings.
- Electrification has been identified as an essential step in all deep GHG mitigation analyses. The electrification of end-use applications that are currently using fossil fuels is fundamental, e.g. using electricity to power certain cars, trucks, building appliances and heating systems, and energy requirements for some industries.
- Concurrent trends towards decarbonization of the electricity generating sector are needed. Electricity generation in Canada is already more than 80% non-emitting, with a trend towards non-emitting generation expected to continue, including through increased government action.
- Some sectors such as heavy industries, marine transportation, some heavy freight transportation, and aviation could move to lower or low-carbon fuels such as second generation biofuels or hydrogen. Alternatively, new and emerging technologies in synthetic hydrocarbons or energy storage would be needed.
- Abatement of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases, such as methane and hydrofluorocarbons, is a priority given their high global warming potentials. Reductions of these pollutants can often help slow the rate of near-term warming and contribute to achievement of the global temperature goal. Although black carbon is not classified as a greenhouse gas, it has strong global warming effects that must also be addressed.
- Innovation will also be crucial. A sustainable energy transition is possible with currently deployed or near-commercial technologies, but the long-term transition will be eased with the near-term accelerated deployment of clean energy options, or the development of more innovative technologies. The private sector has an important role to play in this respect including spurring investment and innovation towards low GHG alternatives. Carbon pricing will be an important element to achieving this objective.
- Collaboration with provinces and territories, Indigenous peoples, municipalities, business and other stakeholders will be essential to Canada’s long-term success in enabling clean growth, reducing emissions and seizing the opportunities of the low-carbon global economy.
Dealing with climate change will ultimately require net-zero anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the course of this century. The Strategy document concludes by noting that Canada will need to fundamentally transform all economic sectors, especially patterns of energy production and consumption.