In a landmark 9-1 vote on December 16, 2010, California’s Air Resource Board (ARB) voted to adopt the first large-scale cap-and-trade program in the U.S. This vote represents the culmination of an eventful year for California’s AB 32 legislation, which aims to reduce the state’s greenhouse house gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. In California’s general elections held in November 2010, AB 32 survived a ballot measure that would have indefinitely delayed the program. California’s progress towards cap-and-trade comes as federal efforts to establish a nation-wide emissions trading program have stalled in Congress.
Under the proposed California cap-and-trade rules, the state would initially give away allowances to regulated industries. In later years, California would auction allowances. Industries that could show the regulations were putting them at a significant competitive disadvantage to companies in other, less carbon-constrained, jurisdictions could qualify for additional free allowances. The proposed rules would establish a $10 per metric ton auction floor price on carbon. Regulated emitters would be able to purchase carbon offsets, which are expected to trade at a discount to emission allowances, to comply with 8% of their annual emission obligations.
Offsets under the California Program
In addition to the regulations for the cap-and-trade program, ARB adopted four protocols that will be used to generate offsets for compliance, marking the first time forest carbon offsets will be included as a part of a compliance carbon market.
Offsets will come from early action efforts, compliance offsets and a category known as sector-based offsets, which will come from programs managed in developing countries. Early action offsets include those from the 2005-2014 vintages of Climate Action Reserve (CAR) credits from projects in methane digestion, destruction of ozone depleting substances, forestry and urban forestry.
In anticipation of California’s cap-and-trade program, the carbon market has responded with a jump in offset prices. Analysts note that offset prices have doubled from about $4 per ton of to $8 per ton amid higher volumes of trading in recent weeks.
Analysts have also predicted a shortfall in the supply of offsets. CAR projects that the ARB-approved protocol types will be able to generate approximately 30 million tons of credits through 2014, which credits can be used in the California program. However offset demand is projected to exceed 200 million tons through 2020. Now that there is regulatory certainty, the market must now work to fill the gap between offset supply and demand.
New Mexico Approves its Cap-and-Trade Program
In other news, New Mexico narrowly approved its cap-and-trade program in early November 2010 as well as the state’s participation in the regional Western Climate Initiative market. These measures will not go into effect unless other U.S. states or Canadian provinces move ahead with similar systems for capping emissions. The New Mexico program would regulate approximately 63 large industrial sources.